Melbourne and Darwin Property Markets Set for Varied Fortunes in 2024
As we look towards 2024, the Australian property market continues to present a complex picture, with distinct trends emerging in Melbourne and Darwin. Nathan Mawby, in his article “How much Melbourne home prices could rise in 2024: PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report,” and Courtney Snowden’s piece, “Hope for Darwin property value growth in 2024,” provide insightful forecasts and analyses.
In Melbourne, the PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report predicts a modest increase in house prices, potentially reaching an additional $37,000. This would bring the median house price over $950,000, a significant rise despite Melbourne lagging behind other capitals. Cameron Kusher, PropTrack’s economic research director, attributes this to a combination of factors including interest rate peaks and Victoria’s substantial share of the nation’s incoming migration. “The fact we are at or near peak interest rate levels could see more people looking to buy next year,” Kusher notes.
However, Melbourne’s market is not without its challenges. A landlord exodus, driven by increased state government taxes, has led to a surge in the number of homes on the market. Luke Assigal, a representative of the Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia in Victoria, observes a significant impact of new taxes on investment and secondary properties. “There are quite a lot of investors looking to exit Melbourne and Victoria because there are quite a lot of taxes,” he adds, reflecting on the state government’s measures to recoup Covid-era budget losses.
Conversely, the Darwin property market, after facing a challenging 2023, is showing signs of potential growth in 2024. Louis Cox, assistant valuer at Herron Todd White, highlights the strength of the owner-occupier demand in Darwin, even as investor interest remains subdued. He points out the divergence in the market, where newer properties or those in good condition are faring better than older properties requiring work. The rental market in Darwin could play a crucial role in driving values up in 2024, with projects like the Charles Darwin University city campus set to further tighten the rental market.
Both markets are influenced by overarching factors like interest rates and construction costs, yet they exhibit unique dynamics. Melbourne’s growth is tempered by tax-driven landlord exits, while Darwin’s market benefits from specific local developments and a strengthening rental sector. As 2024 approaches, these divergent trends offer a mixed outlook for prospective buyers and investors in these two Australian cities.
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