Navigating the Australian Property Market: A 2024 Outlook - Property Inc

Navigating the Australian Property Market: A 2024 Outlook

The Australian real estate landscape is poised for a significant transformation in the coming years, with key indicators suggesting a rebound in the property market, particularly in the commercial sector, by the second half of 2024. This outlook is based on comprehensive reports by industry experts Henry Thai and Eleanor Creagh, who offer a detailed analysis of the current trends and future projections.

Henry Thai, in his article “Australian property market set for rebound from Q3 2024,” cites Cushman & Wakefield’s research, indicating a potential upturn in the property market by Q3 2024. This shift is expected following the easing of economic pressures such as the fixed-rate mortgage cliff and inflation. The Term Funding Facility, introduced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) during the pandemic, played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy but is set to impact credit availability in the first half of 2024. Sean Ellison of Cushman & Wakefield remarks, “Our modeling suggests an inflection point in mid-2024, where rates and bond yields start moving lower, and credit can flow more freely.”

Eleanor Creagh’s analysis in “Is the spring listings surge cooling property price growth?” complements this outlook. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike and a surge in property listings during spring, the market has shown resilience. The PropTrack Home Price Index indicates a steady recovery and continued growth in many markets. The dynamics, however, vary across cities, with Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth experiencing heightened competition and price peaks.

Creagh notes the impact of population growth, tight rental markets, and a subdued listings environment as key factors driving the current market. She explains, “The number of enquiries per for sale listing increased 19% year-on-year in October but remains below the record high levels seen in late 2021.”

Both Thai and Creagh acknowledge the dynamic nature of the market, with potential risks and uncertainties. The anticipated rate cuts in late 2024 could be a pivotal moment, influencing the trajectory of the property market. As Ellison aptly puts it, “There are certainly risks remaining in a highly dynamic market. However, we see that a softer landing relative to other global economies and the attraction to the Australian commercial real estate market will help the eventual recovery gain momentum.”

In conclusion, the Australian property market, while currently navigating a complex landscape, is expected to experience a significant upswing from the third quarter of 2024. The combined insights of Thai and Creagh offer a comprehensive understanding of the market’s current state and future prospects, highlighting the interplay of economic factors, market dynamics, and policy decisions in shaping the real estate sector’s path forward.


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